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The last time the Phillies were in the NLCS, I was in sixth grade. My walls were covered with Inquirer posters and Daily News headlines of the Phils’ surprise run to the top of the NL East. The Phillies clinched the division on Sept. 28, banging out 18 hits in a 10-7 win over the Pirates. Mariano Duncan topped off a six-run seventh with a grand slam. “Slam Duncan,” the DN crowed.
The 76ers were 38-6 the day I was born; a few months later, they’d sweep the Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Phillies would win the pennant that autumn. I was too young for the Flyers’ run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1987, so the Phillies’ playoff experience that year was the first time I really saw the city galvanized behind a team. (In my lifetime, the 2001 Sixers are the high-water mark for such hysteria.)
All my friends are nervous today. A friend send me an email saying he couldn’t eat. Another complained about how long the day felt. Another warned me about jinxing the Phillies. Fortunately, I won’t be pitching, only watching, so I’m not so worried about that last one.
It’s just like a sports fan to be that nervous before Game 1 of a Best of 7 series. It’s just like a Philadelphia fan to be worried that something bad is going to happen. Not me, though. Not this time. I’ve been supremely confident all season, and I see no reason to change my mind. The Phillies are going to win this series. It might be easy.
Like all sports predictions, take it with a grain of salt. My opinion isn’t based on much anything besides a cursory glance at the stats and my own conjecture. This is better, at least, than columns predicting doom for the Phils because Joe Torre used to manage the Yankees, but it’s still just a guess. Hell, I won’t even give any evidence, because my reasoning is simple. Same thing as last series, but replace the team: The Dodgers suck. The Phillies are good, yes, but more importantly: they are better than the team they’re facing. And that’s only as good as they need to be.
Obviously, I don’t know if the Phillies are going to win, and I have no idea why my guess should be accurate. But one of my nervous friends today sent out an email to a few of us, asking us how the Phillies would lose in the end, be it the NLCS or the World Series.
I do not know when the Phillies will lose. They could even win it all. But I have come up with the most Philadelphia way for them to lose, on a home run at a crucial moment overturned by instant replay. Howard or Burrell or Utley will hit one high and deep and down the line, and it will be a homer, until it is overturned by a rule almost randomly put in late in the season. No ending could be more fitting.
But, hey, they haven’t lost just yet, and I know they’re going to win tonight, so let’s have fun while it lasts, eh? Phils in 5.
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The Phillies move from cable to broadcast TV in the NLCS tonight, meaning there will be an immeasurable number of shots of actors in new Fox shows sitting in the stands. There will also be some real celebrities there to just enjoy the game and get on TV — but probably only in Los Angeles. 
